The Weekly Key

 The Weekly Key — December 16, 2025

Hey friends — Tanya here!
If you’re thinking about upgrading your home here in Denton County, now’s a perfect time for an honest snapshot of what’s happening out there. We’ve got softening inventory, stable rates, and some interesting local headlines that could influence decisions this winter — whether you’re buying, selling, or somewhere in between.

This Week’s Market Takeaways

1) Mortgage rates are mostly stable

The average 30-year fixed mortgage continues to hang in the low-6% range, and 15-year loans remain around the mid-5% range — giving buyers a predictable payment landscape as they consider a bigger home. MintRates.com
Why it matters: Stability helps you plan your move-up budget without scrambling for numbers each week.

2) Inventory & choice are improving locally

Local housing snapshots and the Texas A&M TRERC Denton County dashboard show listings and months of supply rising versus last year — meaning more homes for buyers to choose from. Texas Real Estate Research Center
Why it matters: More options = better chance at finding the right layout, yard, and features you actually want.

3) Home prices are softer (especially compared to last year)

Recent Realtor reports show Denton County median sale prices lower than 12 months ago, and homes sitting on market longer than they were at this time last year. Redfin
Why it matters: That shift gives buyers more leverage in negotiations — especially on terms and timelines.

4) Buyer demand is cautious

Across the broader DFW metroplex, buyer interest and application activity are steady but not frenzied, suggesting we’re in a more balanced market than the last few boom years. PrimeStreet
Why it matters: Less urgency from competitors = opportunity to pause, compare, and choose smarter.

Top DFW Suburbs to Watch for Your Move-Up

If you’re thinking beyond Denton County but still want growth + lifestyle, these areas are trending strong based on recent forecasts and buyer behavior:

• McKinney & Allen — big growth explosions and excellent schools put these up near the top of regional buyer choice lists. DFW Agent Magazine

• Plano & Frisco — solid job markets + community amenities keep these in demand. DFW Agent Magazine

• Rockwall & Grapevine — popular for families wanting lakeside vibes or high walkability with commuting ease. DFWBuyMyHouse

• Flower Mound / Lewisville / The Colony — great balance of space and access, and home values that appeal to move-up buyers. Destination DFW

These suburbs are all part of the healthy mix that keeps DFW strong — and Denton County homebuyers can benefit from knowing where the broader demand is headed.

This Week’s News That Matters

• Kroger expands in North Texas — Kroger is breaking ground on three new Marketplace stores in Fate and McKinney in 2026, signaling continued retail and economic investment in fast-growing suburbs. Chron
  Why this matters: Retail development often follows population growth — and residents want convenience close to home.

• New LDS temple approved in Fairview — A 31,000-sq-ft temple project was approved despite controversy over scale and community impact. Chron
  Why this matters: Large cultural or community anchors can affect traffic patterns, local identity, and sometimes even housing desirability over the long term — something to watch in evolving suburbs.

Tanya’s Take:

If I were in your shoes this week — and many clients are asking me this — I’d:

1. Get your pre-approval refreshed so you’re ready to act.

2. Focus your search on what really matters (floor plan, commute, schools), not just the “biggest house.”

3. Use the softer sales pace to your advantage — inspections, credits, timelines, and terms are all negotiable right now.

4. Check nearby DFW suburbs you love — some are booming with amenities and still reasonable on price compared to legacy hot spots.

The housing market isn’t sprinting, but it’s not stuck either — which gives you the chance to be strategic, calm, and confident.

The Weekly Key — December 9, 2025

Hey y’all — Tanya here.
If you’ve been thinking about upgrading your home or just watching what’s going on in the DFW market, this week’s got a little extra to chew on. Rates are steady, inventory’s loosening, and there’s a local news story with ripple effects worth knowing about.

5 Things You Should Know This Week

1. Rates remain steady (good for budgeting a bigger home)
Latest from Freddie Mac shows the 30-year fixed is hanging right around low-6%, and the 15-year is still in the 5.4–5.5% range. That consistency helps when you’re stretching for more space and want payment stability. Realtors News Today+1

2. Buyer demand is softening — less frenzy = more breathing room
Application activity as reported by Mortgage Bankers Association remains muted — which means fewer bidding wars and less pressure on buyers. Good news if you want time to think and negotiate without the panic. NBC 5 Dallas-Fort Worth+1

3. Inventory in Denton County & across DFW is rising
More homes are hitting the market, and months-of-supply numbers are slowly improving compared with earlier this year. That gives move-up buyers more choices — ideal when you’re after size, layout, and value. M&D Real Estate+1

4. Prices are holding — not shooting up — which keeps this more of a balanced market
Home prices around the region are relatively stable. The wild jumps we saw post-pandemic seem to have cooled, which means buyers aren’t chasing runaway prices and sellers still have reasonable demand. DFW Urban Realty+1

5. News to Watch: Big boost for DFW — major new investment across local golf + leisure assets
A recent report shows a Kansas-based firm just bought five semi-private golf courses across the DFW metroplex (including clubs in Keller, McKinney, Flower Mound, Wylie, and Frisco/area). Chron
Why that matters: when investors are betting on leisure and community amenities around DFW, that usually correlates with long-term population growth, desirability, and hopefully — stable home values. If you land a move-up home near one of these areas, you might be looking at better lifestyle and good long-term equity.

My Hot Take:

• Get pre-approval locked while rates stay stable — it keeps your options flexible.

• Focus your hunt on homes that offer long-term value (good layout, school district, potential resale strength), especially in neighborhoods tied to growing amenities.

• Use the loosening inventory to your advantage — with more choices, you can afford to wait a bit for the right one rather than jump at the first “almost.”

• Ask smart: with the investor activity and DFW growth signal, don’t shy from negotiating seller credits, rate buydowns, or upgrades if you see a house with potential.

 The Weekly Key — December 2, 2025

Hey y’all — Tanya here, checking in from the heart of DFW. Whether you’re buying, selling, or just scoping the market, there’s a bit of shift in the air — and a few things happening around the area that might change how you think about your next move.

What’s Up in DFW This Week

• Rates and Demand

• Latest numbers from Freddie Mac show 30-year fixed-rate mortgages drifting around ~6.3% — nothing dramatic, but stable.

• Application activity from the Mortgage Bankers Association remains soft. That means fewer frenzied bidding wars this winter, which tends to give buyers (and sellers in sane pricing zones) more breathing room.

• Inventory & Pricing Pressure

• Inventory across many parts of the metro seems to be loosening a bit — more listings, and sellers increasingly embracing realistic pricing.

• That translates to opportunities if you’re shopping for a home with value in mind: more choices, less pressure, better chances to negotiate.

 Local Buzz — North Texas Cities Worth Watching

According to a recent ranking of “best Texas cities to move to,” these DFW / North-Texas cities landed in the top tier — and they caught some extra attention this week: CultureMap Fort Worth+2mansfieldrecord.com+

• 1. Allen

• 2. Frisco

• 3. Plano

• 4. McKinney

• 6. Mansfield 

• 10. Richardson 

Why I think this matters (and you might too) — each of these cities has recently been spotlighted for a mix of affordability, job growth, quality of life, and schools, which keeps demand steady and resale value less volatile.  

 What This Means for You

• Buyers: If you’ve been hemming and hawing, this could be a good window — stable rates, softer demand, and more suburban options making headlines.

• Sellers: It’s not a hot-seller’s spring by any stretch, but if you price smart and position your home well, there are buyers out there who see value — especially in suburbs like Mansfield, Fort Worth-area towns, and other DFW growth zones.

• Everyone thinking long-term: Keep an eye on the suburbs getting buzz (like Allen) or metro hubs with growth + affordability (like Fort Worth). Demand and community investment tend to follow, which means resale value and quality of life both trend up.

 The Weekly Key — November 18, 2025

Hey friends — Whether you’re buying, selling, or just watching the market from your couch with a latte, here’s what’s going on in Denton County that could impact you this week.

 3–5 Quick Takeaways

1. Rates remain manageable
   The latest data from Freddie Mac shows the 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the low-6% range and the 15-year around the 5.4-5.5% zone.
   Why it matters: It keeps your payment more predictable whether you’re buying or selling and moving up or out.

2. Demand is steady but cautious
   According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), mortgage applications haven’t surged—they’re behaving modestly, which suggests fewer bidding wars and less panic-buying.
   Why it matters: Gives you more time to strategize, compare homes, and negotiate rather than feel rushed.

3. Inventory is loosening a bit locally
   The housing-trend platform shows for Denton County a median home sale price around $469K with increased listings and supply. Property Focus
   Why it matters: More homes to choose from means better conditions for sellers who price smart and for buyers who know what they want.

 News You Should Know

•  Big development alert: A 3,000-acre ranch near Denton is being developed into a $5 billion master-planned community with over 4,000 homes, lakes, green space, and retail. Chron
  Why you care: For buyers—this signals sustained growth and future resale value. For sellers—areas nearby might benefit from increased demand as the development progresses.

Tanya's Hot Take:

If I were you (and you know I’m thinking that way as your realtor):

• Get your financing lined up now. With rates holding and inventory rising, timing matters.

• Sellers: If you’re listing, make sure your home shows well—competition is creeping in, so condition + presentation matter more.

• Buyers: With more choices and less urgency, you can afford to be picky—but don’t wait until you’ve talked yourself out of the deal.

• Watch neighborhoods close to this new master-planned community—the ripple effect could create opportunity zones for both buyers and sellers

 The Weekly Key — November 11, 2025

Hey friends — Tanya here! Whether you’re thinking about buying, selling, or just staying tuned in to what’s happening in the North Texas market, this week’s trends are worth a quick look. We’re seeing stable rates, a little more inventory to choose from, and some news that might nudge both buyers and sellers to make a move before the holidays hit.

5 Things You Should Know This Week

1. Rates are holding steady (finally)
   The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.22% this week, with the 15-year around 5.50%, according to Freddie Mac.
   → Why it matters: After a year of ups and downs, consistent rates help buyers plan their payments and give sellers more predictable demand.

2. Buyer activity dipped just a touch
   The Mortgage Bankers Association reports that total applications fell 1.9% in the latest survey week.
   → Why it matters: Some buyers are taking a breather — which means less competition and more breathing room if you’re still in the hunt.

3. Inventory is trending up in Denton County
   According to Texas A&M’s Real Estate Research Center, active listings are ticking higher and homes are staying on the market a bit longer.
   → Why it matters: Buyers get more options, while sellers need to focus on sharp pricing and great presentation.

4. Prices are leveling off, not crashing
   The MetroTex Association of REALTORS® reports that the DFW median home price is holding steady around $389,000, basically flat year-over-year.
   → Why it matters: Stability is a win. Sellers aren’t losing ground, and buyers can shop without panic-level price jumps.

5. In the news: Big local development + national outlook

   •  Cole Ranch, a 3,000-acre Denton project, is moving forward — planned for 4,000+ new homes, retail, and two lakes. (Houston Chronicle)

   •  Nationally, mortgage rates hit their lowest level in a year, fueling hopes for a steadier 2026 market. (AP News)
     → Why it matters: Denton County continues to grow fast — and nationally, optimism is building that next year could bring more balance between buyers and sellers.

 Tanya’s Take

If you’re selling this fall, pricing smartly and presenting well is key — today’s buyers have options again. If you’re buying, this calmer market gives you room to negotiate and actually think before you sign. And if you’re just watching from the sidelines, these trends tell me that the wild swings of the last two years are finally settling down.

The WEEKLY KEY - NOVEMBER 4, 2025

If you’re ready to leave behind “starter home” status and level up into something with more space, better schools, or a yard that actually allows for a barbecue that isn’t crammed — you’re in the right place. The good news? A few tides are shifting in your favor this week.

Quick Takeaways

1. Rates – 30‑year fixed: ~6.19% (as of Nov 3, 2025)
   15‑year fixed: ~5.55% (as of Nov 3, 2025)

2. Demand – According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly survey, applications jumped 7.1% in the week ending Oct 24. (floordaily.net) That suggests buyers are stirring again — always good to know your competition is picking up.

3. Inventory / Local Market Movement – Data from the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) and via MetroTex Association of REALTORS® shows listings in Denton County are starting to stick around longer, giving you more wiggle room instead of “sold in 24 hours, five‑offers” scenarios. (MetroTex)

4. Pricing – While I don’t have a fresh “median price down by 10%” bombshell for Denton County this week, the larger region’s pricing trend is relatively stable (less wild leaps) which means less surprise risk when you move up. (MetroTex)

What You Should Do (Straight Talk)

• Lock in your pre‑approval now. Even modest rate improvements can make a difference when you’re stretching into a bigger home.

• Target a property that meets your upgrade criteria and gives you negotiation leverage. Because inventory is loosening ever so slightly, you can ask for more — inspections, closing credits, maybe the seller covers some of the move‑up cost.

• Don’t chase glam‑upgrades. The best move‑up is one where you won’t feel stuck repairing someone else’s half‑done project in year two.

• Stay realistic on budget. Bigger house = bigger everything (maintenance, utilities, taxes, etc.). Make sure your payment still feels comfortable.

• Communicate with your agent (that’s me ) about which Denton County neighborhoods are offering the best value right now — because “upgrade” isn’t just size, it’s long‑term fit.

The Weekly Key — October 28, 2025

If you’ve been daydreaming about “more house” (hello, bonus room and a yard that doesn’t end at the patio), this week brings a little tailwind for Denton County move‑up buyers. Rates eased, demand cooled a hair, and inventory’s giving you more options. Translation: you’ve got a bit more room to negotiate without playing musical chairs with 20 other offers.

3–5 Quick Takeaways

1. Rates: The 30‑year fixed averaged 6.19% in the week of Oct 23 — the lowest in 12+ months. The 15‑year hit 5.44%. That’s not “free money,” but it’s finally moving the right way. Freddie Mac+2AP News+2

2. Demand: Mortgage applications fell 0.3% for the week ending Oct 17. Buyers aren’t stampeding, which helps you avoid bidding‑war drama. MBA

3. Inventory (local): On the Texas A&M TRERC Denton County dashboard, months of inventory is up versus last year, pointing to a slowly more balanced market (read: better leverage for repairs/credits). Texas Real Estate Research Center

4. Pricing: MetroTex’s September report shows the broader DFW median price basically flat year‑over‑year, and Denton County is tracking that “steady/sideways” vibe — strength varies by city and school zone. DFW Agent Magazine

What I’d do if I were moving up

• Get the pre‑approval refreshed while rates are friendly; lock if the payment pencils.

• Aim for “well‑kept, lightly dated.” Cosmetic wins > contractor marathons.

• Use time on market to your advantage. If it’s been sitting, I’m asking for concessions and rate buydowns.

• Keep the long game in mind. Right house, right pocket, right schools — that’s what holds value.

What I’d tell YOU (if we were sitting over coffee)

If I were you, I’d get your pre‑approval updated now while rates are inching lower. Then focus on:

• A house that has the space you need but maybe not every shiny upgrade (let someone else pay for the “custom lighting” if your budget is smart).

• School zones, commute, and resale value in Denton County — because your move‑up shouldn’t just be fun now, it should also make sense long‑term.

• Timing: If you find a house that’s been on the market 60+ days (yes, that is happening), that gives you more leverage.

• Bring your negotiator hat. Because with the pace slowing slightly, you might be able to ask for a favorable inspection credit or a slightly lower price.

The Weekly Key – October 21, 2025

Hey y’all — it’s Tanya here, bringing you the latest pulse on the move‑up market in Denton County. If you’ve been thinking of upgrading — for more space, better schools, a backyard the kids won’t outgrow — now’s a good moment to check in. Here’s what’s going on, what I’m seeing, and how I’d act if I were in your shoes.

 3–5 Quick Takeaways

1. Rates are inching downward — The national average for a 30‑year fixed mortgage dropped to about 6.30% this week. (Freddie Mac) The 15‑year is hovering around 5.53%. (Freddie Mac) This gives move‑up buyers a little more breathing room.

2. Purchase demand facing a bit of friction — According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), mortgage applications for the week ending Oct. 10 2025 declined by ~1.8%. (MBA Newslink) That suggests some buyers are pausing or waiting for the right moment.

3. Inventory is loosening in Denton County — The local market shows months of inventory increasing from ~3.5 to ~4.8 in the past year, indicating a slowly shifting advantage toward buyers. (letsmovetotx.com)

4. Pricing holding steady — not exploding upward — While the median sales price isn’t crashing, the rapid gains of earlier years are easing. That means less risk of overpaying — but you still want to be smart. (letsmovetotx.com)

5. Move‑up buyers have a little more leverage now — More listings + slightly longer time on market = a better chance to negotiate repairs, credits, or favorable terms.

 If I Were You (as a Move‑Up Buyer in Denton County)

• I’d get pre‑approved now, so when a move‑up home hits the market you’re ready to pounce.

• I’d lean toward a home in good condition rather than chasing a fixer‑upper (less stress, less surprise cost).

• I’d keep an eye on “days on market” and months of inventory in your target zip/area — if they’re climbing, sellers may get more flexible.

• I’d focus on the long‑game: you’re upgrading for lifestyle not just the next 12 months. So: bigger space, desirable location, but still solid resale fundamentals.

If you or someone you know would like a copy of my Move-Up Sellers Guide: Denton County send me an email!

The Weekly Key – October 14, 2025

Hey y’all — Tanya here.
It’s mid-October, and if you’ve been watching the market (or just thinking maybe it’s your moment to upgrade), now’s a good time to catch up. I pulled the latest rate and buyer data — here’s what’s happening and what I’d do if I were in your shoes.

 3–5 Quick Takeaways

1. Rates nudged a little lower this week
   Freddie Mac’s PMMS shows the 30-year fixed at 6.30%, down about 4 basis points. (Freddie Mac)
   The 15-year fixed also eased, now around 5.53%. (Freddie Mac)

2. Mortgage applications ticked upward
   The MBA reports a 0.6% increase in total applications for the week ending Sept. 19. (MBA)
   Purchase applications rose ~0.3% (seasonally adjusted). (MBA)

3. Inventory is softening in North Texas
   MetroTex’s housing reports show more homes are being listed across many markets. (MetroTex)
   That typically means more choices for buyers and less urgency to jump.

4. Pricing strength is holding, but momentum is easing
   Prices aren’t collapsing — they’re just not climbing as fast. In some areas, price per square foot is leveling off, and sellers on the fringe or in older subdivisions may be more open to deals.

5. Longer listing times = better buyer leverage
   Because inventory is rising and buyer urgency is softer, homes are staying on market a bit longer. That gives you time to be picky, to dig into inspections, and to negotiate rather than rush.

What I’d Do If I Were You (Move-Up Buyer)

• I’d lock in preapproval now, so when the right house shows up I can move fast.

• I’d lean toward homes in good condition rather than maxing out on square footage.

• I’d run comps carefully—look for houses that have been on the market longer and push hard on repair credits or closing cost help.

• Keep an eye on absorption rates (how fast homes are selling). If days on market keeps rising, seller flexibility tends to rise next.

The Weekly Key: What Move-Up Buyers Should Watch (October 7th 2025)

Hey y’all — it’s Tanya checking in. The market’s doing a little dance lately, and if you’re thinking about trading up, now’s a moment to pay attention. Here’s what’s moving and what I’m watching.

🔍 Quick Takeaways

1. Rates ticked up again
   The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.34% this week, up from ~6.30% last week. Freddie Mac+3Freddie Mac+3Freddie Mac+3
   The 15-year fixed also nudged up to 5.55%, from 5.49%. Freddie Mac
   
   

2. Buyer demand is soft / cautious
   The MBA’s applications measure hasn’t released a big leap recently; the trend shows mortgage application volume being muted, especially on the purchase side. Mortgage News Daily+2MBA+2
   Refi activity is more responsive to small rate moves, so that’s where we often see more action. Mortgage News Daily
   
   

3. Inventory is loosening (gradually)
   MetroTex’s housing reports indicate some markets in Texas are seeing inventory rise faster than buyer traffic. MetroTex
   TRERC’s “housing activity” page shows that across Texas, listing counts are increasing (though detailed by county is lagged). Texas Real Estate Research Center
   
   

4. Prices holding, but pressure on upside
   Home prices remain fairly stable, but growth is cooling. Sellers in tougher comps or fringe neighborhoods may feel more pressure to negotiate.
   The rate increase this week (though modest) reminds us that affordability is still tight for many buyers.
   
   

5. More breathing room with days on market
   With inventory up a bit and buyer urgency softer, homes are staying listed just a bit longer on average. That gives you time to be picky and strategic rather than rushed.
   
   

🛠 What I’m Watching & What You Should Do

• Get preapproved ASAP — when motivation and timing align, you want that mortgage ready to go.
  
  

• Push harder on terms — with rates rising, closing costs, repairs, credits, and concessions matter more than ever.
  
  

• Lean into comps & data — more inventory = more comparable sales to negotiate against.
  
  

• Be cautious of rate bumps — the upward move this week reminds us that rates aren’t freefalling downward.
  
  

• Watch new listings in your target neighborhoods — often your best moves come when sellers are first testing the market.
  
  

The Weekly Key: Denton County Buyers, What You Should Watch 

(Sep 30, 2025)

Hey there — Tanya here, checking in as we roll into October. If you’ve been wondering “Is now a good time to make my move?”, this week’s numbers offer some encouragement. The landscape is shifting—and that’s good news for move‑up buyers who want options and negotiating room.

🔍 3–5 Quick Takeaways

1. Rates dipped recently
   According to Freddie Mac’s latest PMMS, the 30‑year fixed mortgage averaged 6.26% recently, down from ~6.35% the prior week. Freddie Mac
   The 15‑year fixed is also lower, at 5.41%, down from about 5.50% a week earlier. Freddie Mac+1
   
   

2. Mortgage application demand is holding firm
   The MBA reports a 0.6% increase in total mortgage applications (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending September 19, 2025. MBA
   Breakdown: refinance applications rose ~1%, and purchase applications nudged up ~0.3%. MBA
   
   

3. Inventory is slowly loosening in Denton County
   The Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center’s Denton County housing snapshot shows an uptick in active listings, more homes coming on the market, and more choices for buyers. Texas Real Estate Research Center
   (Note: I can’t yet verify this week’s exact months‑of‑supply or listing count, but the trend is consistent in recent months.) Texas Real Estate Research Center+1
   
   

4. Pricing pressure is softening
   While median home prices are still strong, growth has decelerated. Some neighborhoods are seeing slower year‑over‑year increases, and in a few pockets, slight declines in price per square foot. Texas Real Estate Research Center+2Texas Real Estate Research Center+2
   That gives move‑up buyers more leverage — sellers may be more open to negotiations, especially when homes linger.
   
   

5. More days on market = more breathing room
   In Denton County, average days on market have increased compared to the same time last year. It’s not a dramatic jump, but enough that you can take a little more time on inspections, comparables, and favoring value over hype. Texas Real Estate Research Center
   
   

🛠 What I’m Watching & What You Should Do

• If you’re in pre‑approval mode, this is a good window: rates have some wiggle room downward, and lenders are still active.
  
  

• Don’t stretch just to hit “bigger” — pay attention to condition, layout, and resale potential, especially now that buyers have more choices.
  
  

• Use rising inventory to your advantage: more leverage, more wiggle room on upgrades.
  
  

• Keep an eye on absorption rates (how fast homes are selling). If that starts to decelerate further, sellers may get more flexible on closing costs, repair credits, or price.
  
  

• For homes in newer neighborhoods, monitor builder incentives (closing cost help, option upgrades, lot premiums) — they often tighten incentives first in cooling cycles.

The Weekly Key: What Move‑Up Buyers & Sellers in Denton County Should Know (Sep 23, 2025)

🔍 3‑5 Quick Takeaways

1. Rates are easing
   The national 30‑year fixed mortgage rate dropped to about 6.26% this week (down from ~6.35% last week). Bloomberg+3markets.businessinsider.com+3Mortgage News Daily+3
   The 15‑year fixed also ticked down, now around 5.41%. markets.businessinsider.com+1
   
   

2. Mortgage application demand is ticking up
   Applications jumped 29.7% week‑over‑week (seasonally adjusted). Trading Economics+3Mortgage News Daily+3Floor Daily+3
   Refinance demand surged much more (≈ 60% higher), while purchase applications are up modestly (~3%) over last week. MBA Newslink+2Mortgage News Daily+2
   
   

3. Inventory & pricing in Denton County show signs of softening
   Based on Redfin’s latest:
   
   

   • Median sale price in Denton County is about $459,700, roughly down 1.1% year‑over‑year. Redfin
     
     

   • Homes are spending more time on the market — ~48 days on average vs ~36 days same time last year. Redfin
     
     

4. Months of supply climbing
   Denton County’s inventory of existing resale homes has reached ~5.6 months of supply. That’s significantly higher than past years and indicates buyers may have more room to negotiate. aaronlayman.com
   Builders/new homes have a lower supply (~3.5 months), but that category is behaving differently. aaronlayman.com
   
   

5. Pricing per square foot is under pressure
   Median listing price per square foot in Denton County is softening. It’s lower YoY, showing that while total prices might not drop drastically, the “bang for your buck” in space is shifting. FRED+1

🛠 What I’m Seeing & What Move‑Up Buyers Should Do

• If you’re ready to move up, locking in financing now (or getting pre‑approval) could be smart, because falling rates + rising inventory = more leverage.
  
  

• Don’t stretch for square footage at the cost of condition — homes with fewer days on market and pricing aligned with comps will still attract competition.
  
  

• Keep an eye on resale inventory; there are more options coming, especially for existing homes. That means you might get more upgrades or price concessions than earlier in the year.
  
  

• For those considering new construction, act quickly on builder incentives — they tend to move when supply is rising and demand is softer.

Hey everyone — Tanya here. If you’re thinking about leveling up in Denton County (bigger yard, more space, better schools), I’ve got some juicy updates this week, 9/16/2025. 📈

What’s Going On

1. Rates are easing a bit
   The 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to about 6.35% this week, down from ~6.50% last week. That’s the lowest it’s been in nearly a year. GlobeNewswire+3Bloomberg.com+3The World Property Journal+3
   The 15-year fixed rate is roughly 5.50%. The World Property Journal+2Bloomberg.com+2
   
   

2. Buyer activity is waking up
   Purchase applications are increasing, likely because the pulling-back of rates is offering some breathing room. The Mortgage Reports+2The World Property Journal+2
   Even refinancing is getting more interest now that rates are softer. The World Property Journal+2Mortgage News Daily+2
   
   

3. Inventory & Pricing
     Avg. Price in DFW: $387,599 

               Average days on Market: 89 

Active Listings: 33,404, 

Closed Sales: 8,246 

4. A window of opportunity if you’re ready
   With rates coming off their highs and buyers still cautious, there’s less competition than during the spring. If we lock your financing now (or close to it), you might get good leverage on closing costs, repairs, or even a seller-funded rate buydown.
   
   

What’s in the News This Week 

• Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest since October. Great for buyers who’ve been on the fence.
  More → [AP: Average rate … lowest in nearly a year] AP News
  
  

• Bank of America suggests rates could fall toward 5% in 2026 if the Fed resumes purchasing mortgage-backed securities. Big if it happens.
  More → [MarketWatch on BoA strategy] MarketWatch
  
  

• PIMCO is pushing for the Fed to pause reducing its holdings of mortgage bonds to help cool big rate spreads. Could impact rates in the near-term.
  More → [Reuters summary] Reuters

My Advice for Buyers

If I were in your shoes:

• I’d lock in a rate quote now (or at least get pre-approval) so you have a baseline, then watch if there’s a dip. Even small savings matter when you’re going up in price.

• I’d lean toward homes that are priced realistically for where things are right now, not what the spring comps were. Sellers still expect top dollar, but buyer strength is softer.
  
  

• Explore new build options—I’m seeing more incentives lately (closing help, upgrades). Sometimes they beat resale when factoring all the costs.