The Weekly Key

The Weekly Key — October 28, 2025

If you’ve been daydreaming about “more house” (hello, bonus room and a yard that doesn’t end at the patio), this week brings a little tailwind for Denton County move‑up buyers. Rates eased, demand cooled a hair, and inventory’s giving you more options. Translation: you’ve got a bit more room to negotiate without playing musical chairs with 20 other offers.

3–5 Quick Takeaways

1. Rates: The 30‑year fixed averaged 6.19% in the week of Oct 23 — the lowest in 12+ months. The 15‑year hit 5.44%. That’s not “free money,” but it’s finally moving the right way. Freddie Mac+2AP News+2

2. Demand: Mortgage applications fell 0.3% for the week ending Oct 17. Buyers aren’t stampeding, which helps you avoid bidding‑war drama. MBA

3. Inventory (local): On the Texas A&M TRERC Denton County dashboard, months of inventory is up versus last year, pointing to a slowly more balanced market (read: better leverage for repairs/credits). Texas Real Estate Research Center

4. Pricing: MetroTex’s September report shows the broader DFW median price basically flat year‑over‑year, and Denton County is tracking that “steady/sideways” vibe — strength varies by city and school zone. DFW Agent Magazine

What I’d do if I were moving up

• Get the pre‑approval refreshed while rates are friendly; lock if the payment pencils.

• Aim for “well‑kept, lightly dated.” Cosmetic wins > contractor marathons.

• Use time on market to your advantage. If it’s been sitting, I’m asking for concessions and rate buydowns.

• Keep the long game in mind. Right house, right pocket, right schools — that’s what holds value.

What I’d tell YOU (if we were sitting over coffee)

If I were you, I’d get your pre‑approval updated now while rates are inching lower. Then focus on:

• A house that has the space you need but maybe not every shiny upgrade (let someone else pay for the “custom lighting” if your budget is smart).

• School zones, commute, and resale value in Denton County — because your move‑up shouldn’t just be fun now, it should also make sense long‑term.

• Timing: If you find a house that’s been on the market 60+ days (yes, that is happening), that gives you more leverage.

• Bring your negotiator hat. Because with the pace slowing slightly, you might be able to ask for a favorable inspection credit or a slightly lower price.

The Weekly Key – October 21, 2025

Hey y’all — it’s Tanya here, bringing you the latest pulse on the move‑up market in Denton County. If you’ve been thinking of upgrading — for more space, better schools, a backyard the kids won’t outgrow — now’s a good moment to check in. Here’s what’s going on, what I’m seeing, and how I’d act if I were in your shoes.

 3–5 Quick Takeaways

1. Rates are inching downward — The national average for a 30‑year fixed mortgage dropped to about 6.30% this week. (Freddie Mac) The 15‑year is hovering around 5.53%. (Freddie Mac) This gives move‑up buyers a little more breathing room.

2. Purchase demand facing a bit of friction — According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), mortgage applications for the week ending Oct. 10 2025 declined by ~1.8%. (MBA Newslink) That suggests some buyers are pausing or waiting for the right moment.

3. Inventory is loosening in Denton County — The local market shows months of inventory increasing from ~3.5 to ~4.8 in the past year, indicating a slowly shifting advantage toward buyers. (letsmovetotx.com)

4. Pricing holding steady — not exploding upward — While the median sales price isn’t crashing, the rapid gains of earlier years are easing. That means less risk of overpaying — but you still want to be smart. (letsmovetotx.com)

5. Move‑up buyers have a little more leverage now — More listings + slightly longer time on market = a better chance to negotiate repairs, credits, or favorable terms.

 If I Were You (as a Move‑Up Buyer in Denton County)

• I’d get pre‑approved now, so when a move‑up home hits the market you’re ready to pounce.

• I’d lean toward a home in good condition rather than chasing a fixer‑upper (less stress, less surprise cost).

• I’d keep an eye on “days on market” and months of inventory in your target zip/area — if they’re climbing, sellers may get more flexible.

• I’d focus on the long‑game: you’re upgrading for lifestyle not just the next 12 months. So: bigger space, desirable location, but still solid resale fundamentals.

If you or someone you know would like a copy of my Move-Up Sellers Guide: Denton County send me an email!

The Weekly Key – October 14, 2025

Hey y’all — Tanya here.
It’s mid-October, and if you’ve been watching the market (or just thinking maybe it’s your moment to upgrade), now’s a good time to catch up. I pulled the latest rate and buyer data — here’s what’s happening and what I’d do if I were in your shoes.

 3–5 Quick Takeaways

1. Rates nudged a little lower this week
   Freddie Mac’s PMMS shows the 30-year fixed at 6.30%, down about 4 basis points. (Freddie Mac)
   The 15-year fixed also eased, now around 5.53%. (Freddie Mac)

2. Mortgage applications ticked upward
   The MBA reports a 0.6% increase in total applications for the week ending Sept. 19. (MBA)
   Purchase applications rose ~0.3% (seasonally adjusted). (MBA)

3. Inventory is softening in North Texas
   MetroTex’s housing reports show more homes are being listed across many markets. (MetroTex)
   That typically means more choices for buyers and less urgency to jump.

4. Pricing strength is holding, but momentum is easing
   Prices aren’t collapsing — they’re just not climbing as fast. In some areas, price per square foot is leveling off, and sellers on the fringe or in older subdivisions may be more open to deals.

5. Longer listing times = better buyer leverage
   Because inventory is rising and buyer urgency is softer, homes are staying on market a bit longer. That gives you time to be picky, to dig into inspections, and to negotiate rather than rush.

What I’d Do If I Were You (Move-Up Buyer)

• I’d lock in preapproval now, so when the right house shows up I can move fast.

• I’d lean toward homes in good condition rather than maxing out on square footage.

• I’d run comps carefully—look for houses that have been on the market longer and push hard on repair credits or closing cost help.

• Keep an eye on absorption rates (how fast homes are selling). If days on market keeps rising, seller flexibility tends to rise next.

The Weekly Key: What Move-Up Buyers Should Watch (October 7th 2025)

Hey y’all — it’s Tanya checking in. The market’s doing a little dance lately, and if you’re thinking about trading up, now’s a moment to pay attention. Here’s what’s moving and what I’m watching.

🔍 Quick Takeaways

1. Rates ticked up again
   The 30-year fixed mortgage averaged 6.34% this week, up from ~6.30% last week. Freddie Mac+3Freddie Mac+3Freddie Mac+3
   The 15-year fixed also nudged up to 5.55%, from 5.49%. Freddie Mac
   
   

2. Buyer demand is soft / cautious
   The MBA’s applications measure hasn’t released a big leap recently; the trend shows mortgage application volume being muted, especially on the purchase side. Mortgage News Daily+2MBA+2
   Refi activity is more responsive to small rate moves, so that’s where we often see more action. Mortgage News Daily
   
   

3. Inventory is loosening (gradually)
   MetroTex’s housing reports indicate some markets in Texas are seeing inventory rise faster than buyer traffic. MetroTex
   TRERC’s “housing activity” page shows that across Texas, listing counts are increasing (though detailed by county is lagged). Texas Real Estate Research Center
   
   

4. Prices holding, but pressure on upside
   Home prices remain fairly stable, but growth is cooling. Sellers in tougher comps or fringe neighborhoods may feel more pressure to negotiate.
   The rate increase this week (though modest) reminds us that affordability is still tight for many buyers.
   
   

5. More breathing room with days on market
   With inventory up a bit and buyer urgency softer, homes are staying listed just a bit longer on average. That gives you time to be picky and strategic rather than rushed.
   
   

🛠 What I’m Watching & What You Should Do

• Get preapproved ASAP — when motivation and timing align, you want that mortgage ready to go.
  
  

• Push harder on terms — with rates rising, closing costs, repairs, credits, and concessions matter more than ever.
  
  

• Lean into comps & data — more inventory = more comparable sales to negotiate against.
  
  

• Be cautious of rate bumps — the upward move this week reminds us that rates aren’t freefalling downward.
  
  

• Watch new listings in your target neighborhoods — often your best moves come when sellers are first testing the market.
  
  

The Weekly Key: Denton County Buyers, What You Should Watch 

(Sep 30, 2025)

Hey there — Tanya here, checking in as we roll into October. If you’ve been wondering “Is now a good time to make my move?”, this week’s numbers offer some encouragement. The landscape is shifting—and that’s good news for move‑up buyers who want options and negotiating room.

🔍 3–5 Quick Takeaways

1. Rates dipped recently
   According to Freddie Mac’s latest PMMS, the 30‑year fixed mortgage averaged 6.26% recently, down from ~6.35% the prior week. Freddie Mac
   The 15‑year fixed is also lower, at 5.41%, down from about 5.50% a week earlier. Freddie Mac+1
   
   

2. Mortgage application demand is holding firm
   The MBA reports a 0.6% increase in total mortgage applications (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending September 19, 2025. MBA
   Breakdown: refinance applications rose ~1%, and purchase applications nudged up ~0.3%. MBA
   
   

3. Inventory is slowly loosening in Denton County
   The Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center’s Denton County housing snapshot shows an uptick in active listings, more homes coming on the market, and more choices for buyers. Texas Real Estate Research Center
   (Note: I can’t yet verify this week’s exact months‑of‑supply or listing count, but the trend is consistent in recent months.) Texas Real Estate Research Center+1
   
   

4. Pricing pressure is softening
   While median home prices are still strong, growth has decelerated. Some neighborhoods are seeing slower year‑over‑year increases, and in a few pockets, slight declines in price per square foot. Texas Real Estate Research Center+2Texas Real Estate Research Center+2
   That gives move‑up buyers more leverage — sellers may be more open to negotiations, especially when homes linger.
   
   

5. More days on market = more breathing room
   In Denton County, average days on market have increased compared to the same time last year. It’s not a dramatic jump, but enough that you can take a little more time on inspections, comparables, and favoring value over hype. Texas Real Estate Research Center
   
   

🛠 What I’m Watching & What You Should Do

• If you’re in pre‑approval mode, this is a good window: rates have some wiggle room downward, and lenders are still active.
  
  

• Don’t stretch just to hit “bigger” — pay attention to condition, layout, and resale potential, especially now that buyers have more choices.
  
  

• Use rising inventory to your advantage: more leverage, more wiggle room on upgrades.
  
  

• Keep an eye on absorption rates (how fast homes are selling). If that starts to decelerate further, sellers may get more flexible on closing costs, repair credits, or price.
  
  

• For homes in newer neighborhoods, monitor builder incentives (closing cost help, option upgrades, lot premiums) — they often tighten incentives first in cooling cycles.

The Weekly Key: What Move‑Up Buyers & Sellers in Denton County Should Know (Sep 23, 2025)

🔍 3‑5 Quick Takeaways

1. Rates are easing
   The national 30‑year fixed mortgage rate dropped to about 6.26% this week (down from ~6.35% last week). Bloomberg+3markets.businessinsider.com+3Mortgage News Daily+3
   The 15‑year fixed also ticked down, now around 5.41%. markets.businessinsider.com+1
   
   

2. Mortgage application demand is ticking up
   Applications jumped 29.7% week‑over‑week (seasonally adjusted). Trading Economics+3Mortgage News Daily+3Floor Daily+3
   Refinance demand surged much more (≈ 60% higher), while purchase applications are up modestly (~3%) over last week. MBA Newslink+2Mortgage News Daily+2
   
   

3. Inventory & pricing in Denton County show signs of softening
   Based on Redfin’s latest:
   
   

   • Median sale price in Denton County is about $459,700, roughly down 1.1% year‑over‑year. Redfin
     
     

   • Homes are spending more time on the market — ~48 days on average vs ~36 days same time last year. Redfin
     
     

4. Months of supply climbing
   Denton County’s inventory of existing resale homes has reached ~5.6 months of supply. That’s significantly higher than past years and indicates buyers may have more room to negotiate. aaronlayman.com
   Builders/new homes have a lower supply (~3.5 months), but that category is behaving differently. aaronlayman.com
   
   

5. Pricing per square foot is under pressure
   Median listing price per square foot in Denton County is softening. It’s lower YoY, showing that while total prices might not drop drastically, the “bang for your buck” in space is shifting. FRED+1

🛠 What I’m Seeing & What Move‑Up Buyers Should Do

• If you’re ready to move up, locking in financing now (or getting pre‑approval) could be smart, because falling rates + rising inventory = more leverage.
  
  

• Don’t stretch for square footage at the cost of condition — homes with fewer days on market and pricing aligned with comps will still attract competition.
  
  

• Keep an eye on resale inventory; there are more options coming, especially for existing homes. That means you might get more upgrades or price concessions than earlier in the year.
  
  

• For those considering new construction, act quickly on builder incentives — they tend to move when supply is rising and demand is softer.

Hey everyone — Tanya here. If you’re thinking about leveling up in Denton County (bigger yard, more space, better schools), I’ve got some juicy updates this week, 9/16/2025. 📈

What’s Going On

1. Rates are easing a bit
   The 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to about 6.35% this week, down from ~6.50% last week. That’s the lowest it’s been in nearly a year. GlobeNewswire+3Bloomberg.com+3The World Property Journal+3
   The 15-year fixed rate is roughly 5.50%. The World Property Journal+2Bloomberg.com+2
   
   

2. Buyer activity is waking up
   Purchase applications are increasing, likely because the pulling-back of rates is offering some breathing room. The Mortgage Reports+2The World Property Journal+2
   Even refinancing is getting more interest now that rates are softer. The World Property Journal+2Mortgage News Daily+2
   
   

3. Inventory & Pricing
     Avg. Price in DFW: $387,599 

               Average days on Market: 89 

Active Listings: 33,404, 

Closed Sales: 8,246 

4. A window of opportunity if you’re ready
   With rates coming off their highs and buyers still cautious, there’s less competition than during the spring. If we lock your financing now (or close to it), you might get good leverage on closing costs, repairs, or even a seller-funded rate buydown.
   
   

What’s in the News This Week 

• Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest since October. Great for buyers who’ve been on the fence.
  More → [AP: Average rate … lowest in nearly a year] AP News
  
  

• Bank of America suggests rates could fall toward 5% in 2026 if the Fed resumes purchasing mortgage-backed securities. Big if it happens.
  More → [MarketWatch on BoA strategy] MarketWatch
  
  

• PIMCO is pushing for the Fed to pause reducing its holdings of mortgage bonds to help cool big rate spreads. Could impact rates in the near-term.
  More → [Reuters summary] Reuters

My Advice for Buyers

If I were in your shoes:

• I’d lock in a rate quote now (or at least get pre-approval) so you have a baseline, then watch if there’s a dip. Even small savings matter when you’re going up in price.

• I’d lean toward homes that are priced realistically for where things are right now, not what the spring comps were. Sellers still expect top dollar, but buyer strength is softer.
  
  

• Explore new build options—I’m seeing more incentives lately (closing help, upgrades). Sometimes they beat resale when factoring all the costs.